According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in February 2025 is expected to decrease significantly by approximately 30% MoM compared to January. Due to the continuous significant pullback in bismuth production, the output has once again fallen to a low point. However, as the beginning of February coincided with the Chinese New Year holiday, many producers suspended operations. Additionally, producers generally reported a slight shortage of bismuth raw materials before and after the holiday, making the sharp decline in production this month understandable. From the perspective of production activities, many producers conducted equipment maintenance before the holiday. However, a small number of producers accelerated production during the holiday to prepare for post-holiday supply, resulting in a slight increase in production for a few producers. Nevertheless, most producers experienced varying degrees of production decline. Detailed data from SMM's survey of 24 producers showed that production increased significantly for 2 producers in February, while the rest experienced either varying degrees of decline or relatively small changes. This led to a significant drop in overall bismuth ingot production in February compared to the previous month. As a result, many market participants expect that nationwide bismuth production will stabilize in March, with a high likelihood of a rebound in refined bismuth production. However, considering the potential continued tightness in raw materials, the extent of the rebound may be limited.
Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its national refined bismuth production assessments. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, SMM surveys a total of 24 refined bismuth producers across 8 provinces in China. The total sample capacity exceeds 50,000 mt, with a capacity coverage rate of over 99%.
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